Estimate of Health Burden on Smoking-associated Oral Cancer in Shanghai and its Surrounding Areas

Objective: To evaluate the temporal trend of inpatients with smoking-associated oral cancer in Shanghai and its surrounding areas and to forecast the public health burden in the next decade. Methods: Data of inpatients with oral cancer were retrieved from Shanghai Ninth People's Hospital during a 15-year period. The annual numbers of inpatients were compared by Chi-test. The hospitalization expenditures were compared by Student's t test. The trend analysis and inpatient forecasting were performed by exponential smoothing, regression models, and the forecasting function in Excel software. The financial burden of smoking-associated oral cancer was calculated by polynomial equation. Results: The annual number of inpatients with oral cancer increased during the study period. Most male patients were reported to have a smoking habit. Among the three estimation methods, polynomial regression model was most fitted to the existing data. By a conservative estimation, the public health burden of smoking-associated oral cancer patients will be 120 million RMB by the year 2026, not including the cost by prevalent patients and the patients' family members. Conclusion: Smoking-associated oral cancer will cost a lot of public resource in the next decade. Efforts should be made to lower the amount of tobacco consumption. Keywords: forecast, health burden, oral cancer, smoking, trend